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THE VACANCY REPORT

Shortages Likely to Effect All of NZ by 2011

Chart - Decline in job vacancies 2008-2010

The Christchurch earthquake has caused massive losses for thousands of Kiwis, and our hearts go out to everyone affected.

What will the earthquake mean for NZ's job market? Vacancies grew through 2010 as business confidence returned, however last month unemployment suddenly jumped to 6.7% (up from 6.0%), probably due to seasonal jobs disappearing over winter.

Now this huge natural disaster has hit, and it will inevitably effect the economy and jobs. Treasury forecasts a $4 Billion spend on rebuilding, and there may be a 1% rise in GDP over two years. Journalists are debating the impact, however we're likely to see staff shortages across the whole NZ Job Market next year.

Building Demand Likely to Cause Shortages

We expect demand to grow rapidly for all building and construction trades, including carpenters, steel fixers, electricians and plumbers.
As soon as next month labour shortages could start to hit these trades when employers move to secure people they need for reconstruction teams. A wide range of administration, professional and service roles will also arise to support the frontline work.

By late 2010 into early 2011 jobs growth will be in full swing as large scale construction coincides with normal seasonal jobs. Then through 2011 tourism and hospitality operators will gear up staff levels for the Rugby World Cup.

For these reasons we forecast unemployment will fall below 5% by the second quarter of 2011, and staff shortages will become widespread in most job sectors throughout NZ.

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